IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

Online Course Making the African Continental Free trade Area (AFCFTA) Work - 24 February to 05 April 2020 - African leaders held an Extraordinary Summit on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) from 17-21 March 2018 in Kigali, Rwanda, during which the Agreement establishing the AfCFTA was presented for signature, along with the Kigali Declaration and the Protocol to the Treaty Establishing the African Economic Community relating to the Free Movement of Persons, Right to Residence and Right to Establishment. In total, 44 out of the 55 AU member states signed the consolidated text of the AfCFTA Agreement, 47 signed the Kigali Declaration and 30 signed the Protocol on Free Movement. To date fifty four (54) countries have signed the AfCFTA agreement and twenty seven have ratified beyond the 22 ratifications required for the treaty to come into force. In the view to provide policymakers, private sector actors with the clear understanding of the AfCFTA objectives, negotiations and impact on the country socioeconomic transformation, the African Trade | Page 4/5 IDEP Rue du 18 juin BP 3186 CP 18524 Dakar - SENEGAL ( +221 33 829 55 00 7 +221 33 822 29 64 idep@unidep.org http://www.unidep.org Policy Center (ATPC) in collaboration with IDEP is looking for highly qualified in-class and on-line modules courses developer and delivery on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA).  Applicants to the course are expected to have, as a minimum, a bachelor’s degree preferably where courses related to trade. In addition, two years of work experience will be required. Women candidates are also strongly encouraged to apply. Until the registration deadline, participants are accepted to the course on a rolling basis and subject to availability of slots. Applications must be completed exclusively on IDEP online application platform at https://www.unidep.org/?apply. (UNECA)

Key Words: UNECS, IDEP, AfCFTA, Online Course

INTERNATIONAL

In the current trade climate, what are the risks and opportunities for developing countries? (Part II) - Unfortunately, risks dominate at this juncture related to trade and geopolitical tensions. These risks create uncertainty, affect investment and hinder global economic activity. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook emphasizes the need for cooperation in order to resolve these tensions. Traditional monetary and fiscal policy levers, as well as prudential policies to contain financial risks, are important to ensure growth and stability. But constructively resolving trade tensions is essential to unleash the global economy’s potential.[1] The multilateral trading system has been very important for emerging and developing economies who are key beneficiaries from a rules-based system. Therefore a durable resolution of tension rooted in a strengthened multilateral trading system would be of significant importance to all. The report highlights that there is a significant underpricing of carbon emissions, which creates an unsustainable situation. And it raises the urgency of addressing climate change, including through carbon pricing. For example, in several cases the current pricing is in the single digits per ton of carbon dioxide but it should be closer to US$75 per ton. So carbon pricing is well behind what would be needed to address climate change. (Trade4devnews)

Key Words: Trade, Developing Counties, Investment Policy

PAN AFRICAN

African Union to launch the 2019 Biennial Review with its Africa Agriculture Transformation Scorecard (AATS) – a revolutionary tool to drive agricultural productivity and development - The African Union will, during the upcoming AU General Assembly, present and launch the second Biennial Review Report on the implementation of the June 2014 Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods and it’s Africa Agriculture Transformation Scorecard (AATS). H.E Abiy Ahmed Ali, Ethiopian Prime Minister and AU Leader of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), is expected to present the AATS and Biennial Review Report to the AU Assembly of Heads of State and Government. The inaugural 2017 BR Report and AATS, the first of its kind in Africa, was launched and endorsed by the AU General Assembly in January 2018. The document captures the continent’s agricultural progress based on a pan-African data collection exercise led by the African Union Commission’s Department of Rural Economy and Agriculture (DREA), AUDA-NEPAD and Regional Economic Communities in collaboration with technical and development partners. Member States were assessed on the seven commitments in the Malabo Declaration, across 47 indicators.  The AATS tracks progress in commitments made by AU Heads of State and Government through CAADP and the Malabo Declaration to increase prosperity and improved livelihoods for transforming agriculture. The indicators chosen to track the performance categories were defined on the basis of the strategic objectives derived from the Malabo Declaration. (AU)

Key Words: AU, NEPAD, Regional Integration

Africa hit 3.4% growth in 2019, driven by higher exports and investment outlays – Over the last year, Africa recorded a 3.4% growth, the African Development Bank (AfDB) indicated in the 2020 African Economic Outlook published yesterday. This growth, which is roughly at the same level as that estimated by the institution for 2018, was driven by an increase in exports, particularly from countries producing raw materials which benefited from a recovery in oil prices during the year. According to the report, “In 2019, for the first time in a decade, investment expenditure, rather than consumption, accounted for over 50% of GDP growth.” This figure is more than private consumption, which in recent years has accounted for a large share of GDP growth in African countries. At the sub-regional level, East Africa recorded the highest growth (5%), followed by North Africa (4.1%) and West Africa (3.7%). Central Africa recorded 3.2%, while the weakest performance was achieved by Southern Africa with 0.7% (against 1.2% in 2018), due in particular to the slowdown of the South African economy, coupled with the recent ravages of Hurricanes Idai and Kenneth. “Although stable, this rate (of growth in 2019, editor's note) is below the ten-year average of 5% for the region. The slower than expected growth is partly due to the moderate expansion of the continent’s “big five” - Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa- whose joint growth was an average rate of 3.1 percent, compared with the average of 4.0 percent for the rest of the continent,” the AfDB said. (Ecofin Agency)

Key Words: Africa, Investment Outlays, Exports

Borrow with Sorrow ? The Changing Risk Profile of Sub-Saharan Africa's Debt – In the post-global financial crisis period, the financing of countercyclical policies led not only to a reduction in the fiscal surpluses across Sub-Saharan African countries, but also an increase in their levels of indebtedness. Although public debt for the region in 2018 was still below that of the pre-debt forgiveness period, the risk profile of public debt has sharply increased. The share of concessional public debt has been declining while that owed to private creditors and non–Paris Club bilateral creditors has been rising. The resulting reconfiguration of public debt has led to increased debt service in the region. Hence, the higher risk profile of debt and rising payments might lower the threshold for debt distress in the region. Addressing public debt vulnerabilities requires the buildup of external and fiscal buffers by conducting prudent fiscal policies and implementing growth-enhancing reforms, and the strengthening of debt management practices. However, the policy toolkit can be enlarged by gradually moving from debt management to balance-sheet management of the public sector, and policies to boost the efficiency of public investment. (World Bank)

Key Words: Sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank, Economic Growth

Joint Statement of Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, the United States And the World Bank - The Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Water Resources of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan and their delegations met with the Secretary of the Treasury and the President of the World Bank, participating as observers in negotiations on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), in Washington, D.C. on January 28-31, 2020.  At the conclusion of the meetings, the Ministers reached an agreement on the following issues, subject to the final signing of the comprehensive agreement: a schedule for a stage based filling plan of the GERD;  a mitigation mechanism for the filling of the GERD during drought, prolonged drought, and prolonged periods of dry years; and a mitigation mechanism for the annual and long-term operation of the GERD in drought, prolonged drought, and prolonged periods of dry years. They also discussed and agreed to finalize a mechanism for the annual and long-term operation of the GERD in normal hydrological conditions, a coordination mechanism, and provisions for the resolution of disputes and the sharing of information.  Moreover, they also agreed to address dam safety and pending studies on the environmental and social impacts of the GERD. The Ministers have instructed their technical and legal teams to prepare the final agreement, which shall include the agreements reached above, for a signing of the three countries by the end of February, 2020.  (US Department of Treasury) 

Key Words: Africa, US, World Bank, GERF

Leveraging Export Diversification in Fragile Countries : The Emerging Value Chains of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Guinea – Despite multiple past efforts, fragile Sub-Saharan African economies such as those of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Guinea still rank among the least diversified worldwide, with natural resources constituting a high share of their gross domestic product or exports. Large-scale production of gold for Mali, oil for Chad, uranium for Niger, and bauxite for Guinea offers substantial opportunities, but also has major shortcomings. Conclusive evidence shows poor economic performance by resource-rich but fragile Sub-Saharan African countries. The primary reason is not only their high vulnerability to external shocks, but the greed or grievances that typically lead to rents appropriation by a small group of elites in countries that are prone to conflict. Leveraging Export Diversifi cation in Fragile Countries explores the following questions: What are Mali’s, Chad’s, Niger’s, and Guinea’s main constraints to export diversification as perceived by key exporting firms? How it could be beneficial for these countries to target certain emerging export products? Are their current interventions to promote global value chain (GVC) adequate? What lessons can be extracted from specific cases? How can trade and logistic policies favor (or hamper) export diversification–led growth? (World Bank)

Key Words: Sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank, Export Diversification

Swedish Institute Management Programme Africa - The mission of the Swedish Institute Management Programme (SIMP) is to lead change for responsible leadership and sustainable business practices. The programme challenges traditional approaches of doing business and explores how business can become more people and planet focused in the global economy. Collaborative methods are used to maximize your learning experience, creative thinking and how to lead value-driven change. Experts facilitate topics such as business impact on the environment, diversity and inclusion in the workplace as well as financial strategies for sustainable development. Complex business cases are explored and you receive tools to apply in your day-to-day work. Throughout the programme you develop your own initiative and apply learnings from the programme to continuously develop skills on how to make positive business impact. By the end of the programme you are a part of a long-lasting network of business leaders working for a sustainable future in Asia, Africa and Europe. SIMP will give you: A network of leaders focused on sustainble business and responsible leadership; Increased knowledge about environmental, social and financial aspects of sustainable business; Increased leadership competence; Insights into business cases in Sweden, one of the leading countries in sustainable business practice and exchange of experience with prominent practitioners in business and in the public sector. (Swedish Institute)

Key words: Swedish Institute, Africa, Trade

NORTH AFRICA

UK to Provide £25m to Boost Egypt's Economic Development – The United Kingdom and Egypt announced the establishment of an economic partnership to implement Egypt's Vision 2030 initiative. Egypt and the United Kingdom are seeking to improve education and health care as well as promote trade and investment. According to the partnership, the UK announced it would provide Egypt with £13 million to help accomplish comprehensive economic growth, empower youth, social development, support the neediest groups and develop the business environment. Also within the framework of this partnership, to support financial inclusion, the Uk will grant Egypt £3 million and about £8 million to increase employment opportunities for young people through developing capacity building programs and supporting the development of the higher education system. The statement also said that the two countries will work together to prepare technical studies and feasibility studies to implement a number of sustainable infrastructure projects to increase private sector participation in the projects. The UK will also support Egypt's efforts regarding regional linkage upgrades with other African countries to boost Egypt position as a regional centre for global trade and energy and to support trilateral cooperation between Egypt, the UK and African countries. Both countries also agreed on enhancing cooperation in environmental and sustainable development. (The Exchange)

Key Words: UK, Egypt, Economic Development

WCO supports the MENA region with the implementation of the Cross border E-commerce Framework of Standards – The WCO, in cooperation with Saudi Customs and with the financial support of the WCO CCF Reserves, organized a regional workshop on cross-border E-Commerce for MENA from 13 to 16 January 2020 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The workshop was aimed at assisting WCO Members of the MENA region with the implementation of the Framework of Standards on Cross-Border E-Commerce to build capacities for addressing the challenges presented by growing cross-border E-Commerce.  The workshop brought together more than 30 participants coming from 14 Member Customs administrations of the MENA region and the private sector. The WCO experts explained the Customs perspective on the Cross-border E-commerce and presented the different business models, global and regional trends and the key drivers/ requirements for its development. Industry experts shared business perspectives, elaborating potential opportunities for enhancing collaboration between Customs and E-Commerce stakeholders, as well as successful projects such as the establishment of a pre-arrival processing system in some countries of the region.  After outlining the opportunities and challenges presented by the cross-border E-commerce for Customs administrations in the region, experts introduced the WCO Framework of Standards on Cross-Border E-Commerce and explained each of the Standards contained therein. (WCO)

Key Words: WCO, North Africa, E-Commerce

EAST AFRICA

Ethiopia resumes WTO accession negotiations after eight-year pause – Members expressed unanimous support for the resumption of Ethiopia’s WTO membership negotiations at the 4th meeting of the Working Party on the country’s accession, held on 30 January 2020. It was the first meeting of the working party in almost eight years. The Ethiopian delegation said it was ready to work jointly with members to advance and, hopefully, conclude, the accession process by the end of 2021. The chair of the Working Party, Ambassador Morten Jespersen of Denmark, stressed that the resumption of Ethiopia's accession process coincides with the internationally recognized peace and integration efforts by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.  "As the Prime Minister said in his Nobel speech, while the world is shifting rapidly, it is time for Ethiopia to reap peace dividends with good faith to blossom into prosperity, security and opportunity. I have no doubt that today's Working Party meeting will contribute to reaching this goal, by becoming a critical turning point in the history of Ethiopia's accession" to the WTO, Ambassador Jespersen said. "This meeting convened almost after eight years, has been critical at least on two accounts: first, sending a clear message that the accession of Ethiopia is back; and second, Ethiopia's engagement is decisively different from the past – it is pro-active and offensive, as the WTO accession is integral to Ethiopia's ambitious economic reform agenda," he added. The chair noted that Ethiopia plays a major role in the Horn of Africa region, which has the highest concentration of WTO accession activities. "Therefore, the resumption of the accession of Ethiopia is expected to give positive impetus to other African accessions, as well as regional integration efforts in the African continent, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area." (WTO)

Key Words: Ethiopia, WTO, AfCFTA

Standard Chartered Bank Expert Gives 2020 East African Economic Outlook – Razia Khan, Chief Economist Africa & Middle East at Standard Charted Bank says with a recovery in the two largest economies in East Africa,  they see growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) accelerating from recent lows in 2020. A still-solid growth performance in East Africa should mean that the sub-region remains one of the continent’s outperformers. For Uganda, Khan says delay to first oil is likely to weaken near-term growth prospects. “We have lowered our 2020 and 2021 growth forecasts to 6.0% and 6.2% (6.2% and 6.5% prior). Although the full impact of the regional locust invasion is difficult to assess, food prices have already been pressured higher – from a low base – by December flooding in eastern Uganda. “We now expect the Bank of Uganda to keep its policy rate on hold at 9.0% throughout 2020, having previously seen scope for more easing. “Given elections in 2021, and rising caution over the extent of the government’s public financing requirement, we see the BoU adopting a tighter policy stance, with 200bps of rate hikes in 2021,” said Khan. She added “Uganda’s fiscal policy challenges will remain centred on raising its low rate of revenue collection. “Ideally, the authorities want to see a gradual increment of at least 0.5ppt of GDP in revenue each year. Achieving sustained progress in revenue mobilization, especially with elections approaching, has traditionally been a challenge.” (EABW)

Key Words: EABW, Economic Outlook, SSA

East African states can buck growing trend of an economic slowdown across the globe – In her maiden speech titled Decelerating Growth Calls for Accelerating Action, presented on October 8, 2019, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, said that with slower growth expected in about 90 per cent of the world in 2019, “the global economy is now in a synchronised slowdown.” The fragile outlook was highlighted in the World Bank’s January 2020 Global Economic Prospects—Slow Growth, Policy Challenges. Why is this happening? And, how is East Africa fairing in this new dispensation? A number of factors account for the gloomy global outlook. Among these are trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners, China and the EU. Uncertainties remain as the EU-UK Brexit trade talks commence. The US-Iran standoff has escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Nearer home, the situation in the Horn, the Sahel and the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo continue as old certainties. As a consequence, the World Bank forecast global economic growth of 2.5 per cent in 2020 and 2.6 per cent in 2021. For sub-Saharan Africa, the report forecast 2.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively, as worsening global headwinds have compounded weaknesses in several African economies. Evidently, the shine has come off the “Africa rising” narrative. (The East African)

Key Words: East Africa, Economic Growth, Global Trade

Regulatory and procedural constraints hinder Ugandan ICT exports – A new report explores the characteristics of Ugandan technology firms finds that the sector promotes intraregional trade and the inclusion of women and youth in the economy. But regulatory and procedural hurdles make it difficult for many exporters to reach foreign markets. A new report – Firms’ characteristics and obstacles to ICT services trade: Indicative evidence from a company survey in the Ugandan ICT sector – was released on 21 January, during the fifth edition of Annual Export Week organized by Uganda Export Promotion Board (UEPB) under the theme ‘Unlocking Uganda’s Export Potential’. The report argues that Ugandan technology companies would benefit from a regional discussion targeting harmonization and ways to ease the regulatory burden on African services trade. Facilitating such a dialogue, ideally during African Continental Free Trade Agreement negotiations, is one of nine headline suggestions of the report. The issue is important in Uganda, where the information and communications technology (ICT) sector is growing at a rate of around 20% a year. According to a 2017 paper on e-commerce, Uganda is one of the top 10 low-income countries with the highest share of services exports coming from the ICT sector.  It’s also a beneficiary of the International Trade Centre’s (ITC) Netherlands Trust Fund IV (NTF IV) project, which aims to strengthen small and medium-sized information technology (IT) enterprises. (ITC)

Key Words: Uganda, ICT, ITC

Cabinet approves start of free trade talks with the US – The Cabinet yesterday approved talks with the US on the establishment of a free trade arrangement between the two countries. A Cabinet meeting, held at State House, Nairobi, said the negotiations will give Kenyan goods a smooth access to the US consumer market, especially as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) comes to an end. Yesterday's sitting, chaired by President Uhuru Kenyatta (pictured), also received a progress report on the 100 per cent transition from primary to secondary school initiative. The Ministry of Education reported that initiative has so far achieved an enrollment rate of 93 per cent. The ministry reported that efforts have been stepped up to ensure that the 100 per cent target is achieved by the February 13th deadline. The Cabinet revised the admissions deadline to mid-February to ensure that the new learners are not left behind in their studies by their already enrolled peers. The meeting also approved the establishment of a sub-committee chaired by Education CS Prof George Magoha that will engage stakeholders to ensure that all 2019 KCPE candidates are enrolled in secondary schools.  (Standard Digital)

Key Words: East Africa, US, Free Trade

Kenya pushes for direct cut flower sales to Qatar –Kenya’s private sector is proposing to sell flowers directly to Qatar as part of efforts to boost trade relations with the Middle East country. The push for the flower exports to the Middle East was one of the proposals that officials put on the table during the Kenya-Qatar trade and investment forum, which opened in Nairobi Thursday. The forum, organised by Qatar Development Bank led by its executive director for export development and promotion Hamad Salem Mejegheer, seeks to increase bilateral trade between the two counties currently estimated at Sh4.1 billion. “Kenya attaches great importance to this event, given our status as a leading service destination. “We want to have direct flower auction to Doha, which is four hours from here,” said Ms Fatma Elmaavy, second vice president of the Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Investment. The Netherlands serves as the largest export destination for Kenyan flowers followed by Britain, which also sources flowers from Ethiopia and South America. Officials said Kenya’s cut flowers export could benefit from Qatar Airways’ direct flight to Doha currently operated 25 times a week. While flower export has remained resilient over the years, having contributed Sh113.16 billion in 2018, a 37.8 per cent growth from the previous year, its future looks uncertain as Britain exits the European Union bloc today.  (Business Daily)

Key Words: Kenya, Qatar, Trade

WEST AFRICA

Government will continue to facilitate effective international trade – The Minister of Finance, Ken Ofori-Atta has assured the international community, the Customs fraternity, and stakeholders of Customs activities that the government of Ghana is committed to policies and programmes to equip the Customs Division of the Ghana Revenue Authority to promote and facilitate international trade. This was contained in a statement read on his behalf by the Deputy Minister of Finance Kwaku Kwarteng at the 2020 International Customs Day which was under the theme ”Customs Fostering Sustainability for People, Prosperity and the Planet”. According to him, by the provision of an appropriate legislative framework by the Government for Customs administration and operations, Ghana Customs has been able to introduce innovative procedures and processes while adopting international best practices in the clearing and processing of goods at Ghanaian ports. "In this, we have aimed at reducing the time and costs of clearing and taking delivering of imported consignments of goods,” he added. He indicated that the government of Ghana has invested resources in Customs to enhance their capacity to combat drug trafficking and drugs consumption (with its attendant health hazards) as well as the international trade in narcotics and money laundering. "We will continue to regularly review our work in this area to update the regulatory provisions, with the view to securing and protecting the people and society. (Ghana Web)

Key Words: Ghana, International Trade, Investment

SOUTHERN AFRICA

A global approach to addressing challenges of the sugarcane industry in Mauritius – The sugarcane industry is facing, both at local and international levels, numerous challenges and it is important to have a global approach to addressing this issue, stated the Attorney General, Minister of Agro-Industry and Food Security, Mr Maneesh Gobin, today, at the signing ceremony of a Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement for the sugarcane sector in Mauritius at the seat of the Ministry in Port Louis.  The signatories were the Chief Executive Officer, Ministry of Agro-industry and Food Security, Mr B. Boyramboli and the Director of the World Bank Country, Mr Mark Lundell. Representatives of the Mauritius Cane Industry Authority, Mauritius Sugar Syndicate, the Mauritius Sugarcane Industry Research Institute, amongst others, were also present.  Minister Gobin highlighted that Mauritius has sought the expertise and experience of the World Bank for a competitiveness analysis of the sugarcane industry and the formulation of concrete actions for the way forward. In this endeavour, he said, preliminary works have been already started in 2019 by the experts of the World Bank and one of them is permanently based in Mauritius for research work.  For his part, the Director Lundell, underlined that Mauritius as well as other countries are facing a lot of pressure on the global market as regards the sugarcane industry. A policy framework, he said, is vital for the transition of the sector into a competitive for the Mauritian market. He reiterated the support of the World Bank to the Government of Mauritius for the long-term resilience of the sugarcane industry. (gov.mu)

Key Words: Mauritius, Sugarcane Industry, Trade