IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

COVID-19 and African businesses: Focus on Mauritius - The African Trade Policy Centre (ATPC) of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and International Economics Consulting Ltd., jointly carried out the first comprehensive survey on the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts across Africa in mid-April. The results and findings of the survey for Africa were published here (https://www.uneca.org/sites/default/files/PublicationFiles/eca-iec_survey_covid-19_africa_english_final.pdf).

With a view to provide further insights to the Mauritian sector, we are publishing a second report, with an emphasis on businesses operating in Mauritius. Among the respondents to the continental-wide survey, 84 were from firms having their operations in Mauritius, either at national or international level. The results have highlighted the major challenges that firms are facing due to the current crisis.

Most companies not operating outside of Mauritius expected a drop in demand for products and services, whereas companies operating in Mauritius and in other African countries expressed their concerns about having difficulties in having an operational cash flow. While a shortage in supplies are affecting all companies, micro enterprises are fearing the worst, going as far as business closure.

The survey also finds that most Mauritian based companies have turned to commercial banks to improve their working capital. Although companies that trade have a higher success rate as compared to their local counterparts. The public sector is seen as the sole other port of call for liquidity for firms operating only on the Mauritian market.

Generally, Mauritian firms seem relatively satisfied with the responses offered by the government to the crisis, although they would like to see a postponement in tax payments and wage subsidisation.

The silver lining in this crisis situation is that Mauritian businesses seem to be prepared for extreme situations. While companies engaged in exports are adapting themselves by developing new strategy and products, companies in Mauritius alone have been working remotely. With a view to provide business continuity, this unique situation has forced companies to adopt new technologies. (UNECA)

Key Words: COVID-19, UNECA, Mauritius

INTERNATIONAL

WHO: Leaders call COVID-19 vaccines a “global public good” - Several world leaders, speaking at the opening of the 73rd World Health Assembly (WHA) on Monday, referred to future COVID-19 vaccines as a “global public good”, but the resolution on the COVID-19 response that was adopted on Tuesday failed to reflect this vital concept. The 73rd WHA is taking place as a virtual meeting on 18-19 May 2020. The Executive Board had decided to hold the session as a virtual de minimis meeting with an abridged agenda. The UN Secretary-General, Presidents of Switzerland, China, France, South Korea, South Africa, the Chancellor of Germany and the Prime Minister of Barbados addressed the Assembly.

In their statements at the high-level segment of the opening of WHA on 18 May, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, President Xi Jinping of China, President Emmanuel Macron of France, and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea termed future COVID-19 vaccines a global public good and also called for equitable access to those vaccines. Though there is no legal definition of public good, it is commonly understood as having two main characteristics: “non-excludable” and “non-rivalrous”. A classification of COVID-19 vaccines, which are currently under development, as public goods would free them from intellectual property protection and facilitate the dissemination of technology and mass manufacturing. This would in turn facilitate equitable access to the product within the framework of Universal Health Care. Guterres expressed hope that the finding of a vaccine for the novel coronavirus is a starting point. “It is a historic opportunity to step up research and to reduce inequalities in access to medical treatment and medical care,” he said, adding that it is essential that everybody in the world, wherever he or she may be, can have access to medical care and when ready, access to the vaccine which is a global public good.

President Xi said, “COVID-19 vaccine development and deployment in China, when available, will be made a global public good. This will be China’s contribution to ensuring vaccine accessibility and affordability in developing countries.” President Moon stated that to develop vaccines and treatment, “we must cooperate beyond our borders and such vaccines and treatments are public goods which must be distributed equitably to the whole world”. President Macron said that the purpose of increased French support to the WHO and its Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT)-Accelerator is to have “massive support to research to speed up the results of medical research and to ensure we can guarantee universal access”. He further said that “if we discover a vaccine against COVID-19, it would be a global public good and everyone should have access to it.” However, the resolution adopted at the WHA on Tuesday does not treat future COVID-19 vaccines as a global public good. (TWN)

Key Words: Global Trade, WHO, COVID-19

Action Plan: Supporting small businesses through the COVID-19 crisis and towards the future – To support its partners through these difficult times, ITC has developed the following 15-Point Action Plan for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), business support organizations and governments. The plan supports internationally minded MSMEs through the crisis and allows them to be on the forefront of generating resilience, inclusiveness, sustainability and growth in the future. Business support organizations play the important role of agile, expert and trusted connectors between MSMEs and the government.

Recommendations for businesses

Prepare your immediate response to the crisis…

1. Adapt business processes by applying common-sense precautions and restructuring operations.
2. Optimize cash management and identify efficiency gains.
3. Re-orient your activities and your resources to ensure business continuity during the lockdown.
4. Foster relationships by improving communication with partners and employees.
…and get ready for the 'new normal'.

5. Build business models that foster resilience, inclusiveness and sustainability and ride the digital wave.
 

Recommendations for Business Support Organizations

Prepare your immediate response to the crisis…

6.  Channel the flow of trusted information and build bridges to rapidly deploy solutions.
7. Coordinate collective actions by MSMEs for resilience, scale and efficiency.
8. Be both global and local to inform and reduce the risks that business owners must take during the crisis.
9. Use digital platforms to enhance the competitiveness and agility of your MSMEs to reach customers.

…and get ready for the 'new normal'.

10. Be a leader in enabling MSMEs to thrive within a digital, global economy geared towards resilience, inclusiveness and sustainability.

Recommendations for governments

Prepare your immediate response to the crisis…

11. Resist the allure of trade protectionism, as it could lead to a shortage of essential goods .
12. Expand and facilitate access to trade finance for MSMEs, including those run by women or young entrepreneurs .

13. Facilitate cross-border trade in goods and services and streamline the movement of essential products .

14. Spur the digitalization of trade documents and procedures, in collaboration with the private sector .

…and get ready for the 'new normal'.

15. Prepare to operate in a digital, global economy geared towards resilience, inclusiveness and sustainability .

Click for a downloadable PDF of the complete version of the 15-Point-Action Plan here. (ITC)

Key Words: Global Trade, Global Business, COVID-19

Costs and Trade-Offs in the Fight Against the COVID-19 Pandemic : A Developing Country Perspective – The world is experiencing the worst pandemic crisis in one hundred years. By mid-April 2020, more than 80 percent of countries around the world had imposed strict containment and mitigation measures to control the spread of the disease. The economic fallout has been immense, with dire consequences for poverty and welfare, particularly in developing countries. This Brief first documents the global economic contraction and its potential impact on developing countries regarding macroeconomic performance, poverty rates, and incomes of the poor and vulnerable. It then argues that the pandemic crisis may hurt low- and middle-income countries disproportionately because most of them lack the resources and capacity to deal with a systemic shock of this nature. Their large informal sectors, limited fiscal space, and poor governance make developing countries particularly vulnerable to the pandemic and the measures to contain it. Next, the Brief reviews recent epidemiological and macroeconomic modelling and evidence on the costs and benefits of different mitigation and suppression strategies. It explores how these cost-benefit considerations vary across countries at different income levels.

The Brief argues that, having more limited resources and capabilities but also younger populations, developing countries face different trade-offs in their fight against COVID-19 (coronavirus)than advanced countries do. For developing countries, the trade-off is not just between lives and the economy; rather, the challenge is preserving lives and avoiding crushed livelihoods. Different trade-offs call for context-specific strategies. For countries with older populations and higher incomes, more radical suppression measures may be optimal; while for poorer, younger countries, more moderate measures may be best. Having different trade-offs, however, provides no grounds for complacency for developing countries.

The Brief concludes that the goal of saving lives and livelihoods is possible with economic and public health policies tailored to the reality of developing countries. Since "smart" mitigation strategies (such as shielding the vulnerable and identifying and isolating the infected) pose substantial challenges for implementation, a combination of ingenuity for adaptation, renewed effort by national authorities, and support of the international community is needed. The lockdowns may be easing, but the fight against the pandemic has not been won yet. People and economies will remain vulnerable until a vaccine or treatment are developed. The challenge in the next few months will be to revive the economy while mitigating new waves of infection. (World Bank)

Key Words: World Bank, Developing Countries, COVID-19

IATA Board Declares Principles for Industry Re-start – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced a commitment by the airline CEOs on its Board of Governors to five principles for re-connecting the world by air transport. These principles are:

1. Aviation will always put safety and security first: Airlines commit to work with our partners in governments, institutions and across the industry to:

• Implement a science-based biosecurity regime that will keep our passengers and crew safe while enabling efficient operations.
• Ensure that aviation is not a meaningful source for the spread of communicable diseases, including COVID-19.

2. Aviation will respond flexibly as the crisis and science evolve: Airlines commit to work with our partners in governments, institutions and across the industry to:

• Utilize new science and technology as it becomes available, for example, reliable, scalable and efficient solutions for COVID-19 testing or immunity passports.
• Develop a predictable and effective approach to managing any future border closures or mobility restrictions.
• Ensure that measures are scientifically supported, economically sustainable, operationally viable, continuously reviewed, and removed/replaced when no longer necessary.

3. Aviation will be a key driver of the economic recovery: Airlines commit to work with our partners in governments, institutions and across the industry to:

• Re-establish capacity that can meet the demands of the economic recovery as quickly as possible.
• Ensure that affordable air transport will be available in the post-pandemic period.

4. Aviation will meet its environment targets: Airlines commit to work with our partners in governments, institutions and across the industry to:

• Achieve our long-term goal of cutting net carbon emissions to half of 2005 levels by 2050.
• Successfully implement the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).

5. Aviation will operate to global standards which are harmonized and mutually recognized by governments: Airlines commit to work with our partners in governments, institutions and across the industry to:

• Establish the global standards necessary for an effective re-start of aviation, particularly drawing on strong partnerships with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO).
• Ensure that agreed measures are effectively implemented and mutually recognized by governments.

“Re-starting air transport is important. Even as the pandemic continues, the foundations for an industry re-start are being laid through close collaboration of the air transport industry with ICAO, the WHO, individual governments and other parties. Much work, however, remains to be done. By committing to these principles, the leaders of the world’s airlines will guide the safe, responsible and sustainable re-start of our vital economic sector. Flying is our business. And it is everyone’s shared freedom,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO. (IATA)

Key Words: COVID-19, IATA, Global Business

Tracking trade during the COVID-19 pandemic - With the current fast-changing developments, policy makers need to know what is happening to the economy in real time, but they often must settle for data telling them what happened many weeks ago. And international trade, which links countries through a complex web of supply chains, is an area where timely information is especially valuable from a global perspective. Most trade takes place by sea, and – for navigational safety purposes – virtually all cargo ships report their position, speed, and other information many times a day. A new IMF methodology using these data can help better inform us how international trade is affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Building on machine-learning techniques, we can provide better answers to simple questions such as: How big is the drop in trade activity? Should it be attributed mostly to exports or to imports?

A new approach

Using over one billion messages from ships over a period of five years, the newly-developed methodology closely replicates official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate. It is available at a daily frequency in real time, while official statistics are typically delayed by many weeks. At the global level, our indicators built from ships’ radio signals closely approximate monthly official trade statistics (with a correlation of nearly 0.9 in levels, and around 0.4 in quarter-on-quarter growth rates).

The top panel of our Chart of the Week shows a dramatic fall in Chinese exports in the wake of initial lockdown measures to contain the spread of the virus. Exports resumed in early to mid-March, though in late-April the recovery remained incomplete and showed renewed signs of weakness. (tralac)

Key Words: Global Trade, Global Economy, COVID-19

Applications open for 2020 Trade and Public Health Workshop – The WTO Secretariat is organizing the workshop in close collaboration with the Secretariats of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). The Trade and Public Health Workshop takes a holistic approach to the interlinkages between trade and public health. Its programme has evolved to cover topical and current issues, building on the experience of  similar workshops organized by the WTO Secretariat since 2005 and responding to the feedback from participating officials from the WTO's member governments. It follows the approach developed in the WHO-WIPO-WTO Trilateral Study on “Promoting Access to Medical Technologies and Innovation: Intersections Between Public Health, Intellectual Property and Trade”. The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered an unprecedented global public health crisis and exemplifies the need for global cooperation. The Trade and Public Health Workshop will address the need for coherent policy responses on the basis of a practical understanding of the interaction between public health, trade agreements and the intellectual property (IP) system.  

In an intensive, one-week programme, delivered by a diverse group of more than 30 experts, participants will examine the role that multilateral trade agreements play as part of the wider action to meet increasingly urgent public health needs. Participants will also engage in targeted practical exercises and case studies designed to examine key policy tools and to demonstrate how they can be implemented together more effectively for public health outcomes.  The Trade and Public Health Workshop is intended for senior government officials who have established expertise and hands-on experience on health, trade and IP issues. Candidates should be proficient in English and be ready to actively participate in discussions and case studies.  The WTO Secretariat can fund a maximum of 30 participants. Five additional places will also be available for self-funded participants. Government officials from WTO members and observers eligible to benefit from WTO training activities are invited to apply by 26 June 2020. Detailed information regarding the application procedures is available here.  (WTO)

Key Words: WTO, Trade Workshop, COVID-19

PAN AFRICA

African regional responses to COVID-19 – COVID-19 has firmly set foot on the African continent, affecting all African countries. Any failure to contain the virus in one country ultimately threatens the safety of others. This ‘weakest link’ characteristic calls for a coordinated response across countries. Yet, the volume of analysis of international and national responses stands in contrast to what has been written or discussed about regional responses, particularly in Africa. This note summarises and reflects on the different roles played by the African Union and a sample of the continent’s regional organisations in shaping collective, coordinated regional responses. It finds that the AU has played an effective role in communicating about and shaping African responses, with technical legitimacy provided through the Africa CDC. The AU has also been able to inspire collective action in a unified call for international solidarity.

At the regional level, responses reflect a spectrum of cooperation and complexity – rising from information sharing; to ‘nudging’ and guiding; to active coordination of state responses, to collective action. Different RECs are managing to operate at different levels, depending on their regional and institutional histories, structural features such as the size and coherence of the REC, as well as the political economy dynamics of the countries in its region. Existing regional response capabilities also partially reflect a problem-driven response to the past West African Ebola crisis.

One can expect that the COVID-19 crisis will have a similar effect on regional health cooperation, yet its long term impact on African integration more broadly remains to be seen. (ecdpm)

Key Words: COVID-19, Africa, Regional Trade

COVID 19 Economic and Health Impacts on Regional Food and Nutrition Security – Increased reprioritisation of national expenditure towards control of COVID19 will affect allocations to other sectors such as agriculture which would have long-term effects on food production and supply. The economic fallout for the continent has the potential to be severe and long-lasting. While some global economic impacts of COVID 19 are already emerging, there is less discussion on the effects on individual economies and even less on the impact this will have on food security within the region. It is widely projected that a pandemic would disproportionately affect Africa given its relatively underdeveloped healthcare sector, limited infrastructure and population movement across borders. Tourism will be impacted heavily in the region as a result of border and travel restrictions and, according to research by Price Waterhouse Coopers, the impact of COVID 19 on tourism revenue for South Africa alone represents a potential loss of at least ZAR 200m in Chinese tourism spending. This figure is likely to increase significantly in the months ahead. National economies in Southern Africa, such as Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Mozambique and Malawi, receive high levels of remittances that are critical for both the monetary system and household consumption. Increased unemployment will reduce the inflows of hard currencies and the ability of households to purchase essential commodities.

Many of the countries in the southern Africa region have a high dependence on commodity exports to China, relatively weak sovereign balance sheets, high debt burdens and volatile currencies, and exposure to a number of economic externalities. Chinese demand underpins the economies of various resource-rich countries on the continent, with a slowdown in China as a result of COVID 19 having a disproportionate impact on trading partners such as Angola, Zambia, Congo Brazzaville and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Data visualizations of trade flows by country can be found here: https://comtrade.un.org/labs/ Recessionary trends at the global level and the potential for a prolonged reduction of economic growth in China will have direct impacts on commodity exports in the region ranging from copper in Zambia, precious metals in Tanzania, coltan in DRC and petroleum in Angola and the Republic of Congo.

The main export items between SADC countries include petroleum, agricultural products, electricity and clothing and textile products. Main export items to the rest of the world consist of predominantly export of natural resources (e.g. coal, ferrochromium, manganese ores, platinum, as well as precious metals and diamonds), resource intensive manufactured goods, mainly for the automotive industry, clothing and textiles, and tobacco. The highest share of total SADC exports over time is to the Asia-Pacific region followed by the EU. Trade within Africa is the smallest and of this the majority is intra SADC trade. Although the pretroleum sector represents a declining percentage of African economic activity, many governments remain overly dependent on it for the revenues required to fund national budgets. In Angola, oil accounts for around 75 percent of total government revenue and 90 percent of export revenues. According to Africa Confidential, three-quarters of Nigerian and Angolan oil production for export in April remains unsold. Within sub-Saharan Africa, ODI projected that Angola, RoC, Lesotho and Zambia are among the most exposed to the economic impact of coronavirus and estimates that sub-Saharan Africa will stand to lose USD4 billion in export revenue prior to the identification of a single case of COVID 19 on the continent. (Relief Web)

Key Words: Africa, Trade, COVID-19

How Much Will Poverty Rise in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2020? – The ongoing coronavirus pandemic is expected to drastically slow 2020 GDP per capita growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by about 5 percentage points compared to pre-pandemic forecasts. This note presents results from an analysis of a comprehensive database of surveys from 45 of 48 SSA countries to examine the effects of the project fall in growth on poverty in the region. An additional 26 million people in SSA, and as much as 58 million, may fall into extreme poverty defined by the international poverty line of US$1.90 per day in 2011 PPP. The poverty rate for SSA will likely increase more than two percentage points, setting back poverty reduction in the region by about 5 years.  

The coronavirus global pandemic (COVID-19) has caused a sudden and sharp fall in global economic activity. The relatively low number of infections officially reported from SSA may be misleading because testing capacity is limited and the region may still be in the early stages of the pandemic. 2 A rapidly-expanding pandemic in dense urban centers could easily overwhelm weak health delivery systems. This will be compounded by a slowdown in global economic activity and the additional effects of lockdowns imposed by many governments. 

 Although still unfolding, we can begin to assess the effect of the pandemic on poverty in SSA. This note estimates of the increase in poverty in SSA, given current knowledge. It also presents a profile of those vulnerable to falling into poverty as a result of the pandemic and poverty outcomes under selected economic scenarios. This assessment may need to be revised regularly to reflect the latest developments on the ground as the pandemic develops.(World Bank)

Key Words: World Bank, Africa, COVID-19

EAST AFRICA

Ethiopia’s Blue Nile Dam is an opportunity for regional collaboration – Egypt and Ethiopia should consider the potential value of GERD to advance regional trade and economic integration. Ethiopia does not have major petroleum and mineral resources, but has a vast potential for electricity generation, amounting to almost 45,000 GW. It thus has a capacity to export electric power to Eastern African countries that are connected to the Eastern Africa Power Pool. Egypt and Sudan will enjoy a special priority in terms of power exports from the GERD, according to a 2015 declaration of principles between Ethiopia and the two downstream countries. For Ethiopia, revenues from hydropower exports will help alleviate pressing economic challenges such as shortage of foreign currency and a buildup of the national debt burden.

The GERD will also help alleviate the loss of revenue that businesses in East Africa face due to electric power interruption. Among the three countries involved in the GERD negotiation, Ethiopia loses the most at 6.9%, followed by Egypt at 6% and Sudan at 1.2%. Even a reduction of these losses by half would lead to significant economic gains in these countries, potentially contributing to improvements in productivity, employment creation, and export performance. Access to electricity is an important driver of poverty reduction, economic growth, and industrial production. An effective utilisation of the GERD, therefore, is likely to boost economic growth in the energy-hungry Eastern African countries. Regional integration and stronger interdependence will in turn reduce the risk of conflict in the region. Egypt should acknowledge these regional benefits as well as Ethiopia’s right to an equitable utilisation of its natural resources.

Egypt and Ethiopia will need to arrive at a negotiated solution on the filling of the GERD, in a manner that addresses Egypt’s concerns on the dam’s potential effects on its power production and water supply. Egypt’s massive reservoir at the High Aswan Dam on the Nile has a holding capacity of 169 BCM, equivalent to two-year’s worth of the main Nile’s flow. Compared to Ethiopia, which relies on natural rainfall to meet its water demand, Egypt will have greater readiness to cope with minor changes in the flow of the Nile. If the GERD is filled over a period of seven years, the reduction in the Nile’s flow will be less than 11 BCM, which is equivalent to 11% of the main Nile’s flow and just 6% of the water stored at the Aswan High Dam’s reservoir. (African Business)

Key Words: Regional Integration, Ethiopia, Egypt

EALA meets virtually calls for regional co-ordinated approach to combat COVID-19 – The East African Legislative Assembly has today reiterated regional joint and coordinated approaches in the fight to contain the COVID-19 pandemic at the EAC. EALA Members stated at a virtual (via video conference) meeting chaired by the Speaker, Rt Hon Ngoga Martin, that such initiatives would complement existing measures currently in place by the Partner States. During the meeting, Members took the opportunity to provide feedback on their recent activities in the Partner States and to apprise developments in the Partner States with regards to level of preparedness to combat COVID- 19. The salient issues of the findings of the various chapters of EALA in the Partner States: include enhanced measures by Partner States to effect social distancing, usage of masks, lockdown (or partial lockdown) and community/random testing in some of the Partner States, sensitization and hand-washing initiatives among others. The Members noted that Partner States’ economies, like all others in the globe, had taken major hits and lauded EAC governments’ efforts been undertaken to provide stimulus packages to ameliorate the economic challenges.

The session was called to report back on the recent activities taken by the House to assess preparedness by Partner States to combat the COVID-19 virus pandemic in the EAC region. The activity took place in the Partner States between 18th March 2020 to 7th April 2020. A day earlier (March 17th, 2020), at its 45th Meeting held virtually, the EALA Commission noted with concern the alarming spread of COVID-19 in the East Africa region and the globe. In light of the above, the EALA Commission moved ahead with the assessment of preparedness and awareness creation on the COVID-19 in Partner States. The Assembly further asserted that Members continue and conclude activities according to plans and in so doing, operate within the guidelines provided by the respective Partner States. The findings of the exercise were embedded in the Meeting today, as the current sitting (4th Meeting of the 3rd Session) continues.

EALA Speaker, Rt Hon Ngoga Martin, acknowledged the feedback and directed that formal reports be tabled for debate during the forthcoming EALA Plenary. Over the last three weeks, all the six Committees of the House have continued to convene virtually, in the respective EAC capitals to consider their various reports, prior to presenting tabling and subsequent debates at plenary. The EALA Commission also held its statutory meeting online to consider and approve the activities of the Assembly for the month of May 2020. (EALA)

Key Words: EA, Regional Integration, COVID-19

Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on Firms in Ethiopia : Results from a High-Frequency Phone Survey of Firms – The COVID-19 pandemic and its negative economic effects create a need for timely data and evidence to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis. To monitor the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures on formal firms in Ethiopia and inform the policy response, the World Bank, in collaboration with the government, is implementing a high-frequency phone survey of firms (HFPS-F). The HFPS-F interviews a sample of firms in Addis Ababa every three weeks for a total of eight survey rounds, and an additional sample of firms in four other cities in Ethiopia (Adama, Bahir Dar, Hawassa, and Mekelle) for a total of seven rounds. This high-frequency follow-up allows for a better understanding of the effects of and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on firm operations, hiring and firing, and expectations of future operations and labor demand in order to better tailor and implement interventions and policy responses and monitor their effects. The sampling strategy is explained in detail in a companion technical note.

This note summarizes the results of the first round of the HFPS-F, implemented between April 15 and May 5, 2020 in Addis Ababa. The information presented here is based on a sample of 645 firms1 in the industry and services sector based on a list of registered firms provided by the Ministry of Trade and Industry.  Key Highlights Round 1:

• COVID-19 and related containment measures have substantially impacted firms’ operations in Addis Ababa. Over 42 percent of businesses have completely ceased operations during the reference period (April 1 to May 4, 2020) and 37 percent of businesses had no revenues in the last completed month (either March or April). Profit expectations have taken a beating, with 88 percent of firms expecting this fiscal year’s profits to be lower or much lower than last year.  
• Firms are primarily affected by a significant fall in demand for products and services. Restricted movement of workers forced closure of businesses, and closure of marketplaces are other channels through which the pandemic and related containment measures have affected firms.
• According to firms, the most relevant policy measures to help them weather the storm would be waiving of tax payments, covering operational costs (such as rent), and various measures to help firms repay or restructure loans.
• The employment effect of this shock to firm operations has, so far, been minor, with few firms laying-off workers, likely related to the State of Emergency proclamation with does not allow firms to lay-off workers. Rather, workers have been granted paid leave. However, firms expect to shed 14 percent of their payroll in the next two weeks and 20 percent in the next three months. 
• While all firms, regardless of sector and size, have been affected by the shock, the construction sector appears relatively less affected so far.   (World Bank)

Key Words: COVID-19, Business, Ethiopia

WEST AFRICA

Ghana: Akufo-Addo launches one billion-cedi stimulus package for SME's– President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo has launched a One billion Ghana Cedi stimulus package to provide relief to Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), hard-hit by the novel coronavirus pandemic. The COVID-19 Alleviation Programme (CAP) Business Support Scheme, to be administered by the National Board for Small Scale Industries (NBSSI) is to help lessen the effects of the economic crisis, like no other, caused by the pandemic. It would provide additional capital for business expansion to meet the demand for respiratory illness-related goods and services. At a ceremony at the Jubilee House, President Akufo-Addo said the flu-like virus had exacted a huge toll on world economies, including that of Ghana - reduced productivity, job losses and steep decline of revenue for government, businesses, households and individuals. The MSMEs, which account for 70 per cent of the country's Gross Domestic Product and represent 92 per cent of businesses are among the hardest hit, and therefore the need to be given special attention by the government.

The President said the business support programme was an integral part of the resilience and recovery plan being put in place to ensure the renewal of economic activity and sustenance of livelihoods. "We are determined to protect as many jobs as possible and to help as many businesses as possible get back on their feet." Out of the amount earmarked for the scheme, GH¢600 million would be disbursed as loans to MSMEs with a one-year moratorium and a two-year payment period with three per cent interest. Additionally, selected banks that would participate in the programme would provide a negotiated counterpart funding to the tune of GH¢400 million to be disbursed under the scheme. President Akufo-Addo expressed optimism that the scheme would help the nation's economy to get back on track. He gave the assurance that, "transparency and accountability will be the hallmark of the operation of the scheme”. "I am passionate about the scheme working. Government is investing a lot in it, and I am confident that the proper application of these funds will help our nation bounce back stronger and better than before. “This whole scheme is meant to engender compassion and hope, the pillars on which we build a post-COVID-19 Ghana.” (Ghana Web)

Key Words: West Africa, COVID-19, Business

SOUTHERN AFRICA

Bulletin 5: SADC Regional Response to COVID-19 –  This Bulletin No. 5 of the SADC Regional Response to COVID-19 (BULLETIN 5-SADC Regional Response to COVID-19) provides an overview of the global, continental and regional overview of the pandemic.  Several SADC Member States have embarked on processes towards lifting of public health and other measures in view of depressed economies, which is the crux of this report, where we provide an analysis of the costs and benefits of lifting measures and further highlight the importance of undertaking a risk assessment of each country, including at sub-national level, prior to the lifting of lock down and other measures. Experts have indicated that premature lifting of lockdown measures may lead to a second wave of the pandemic, such as what has been witnessed in Germany and South Korea among others, therefore WHO guidelines remain paramount.

According to Michelle Bachelet the UN Commissioner for Human Rights, “If the re-opening of societies is mishandled, all the huge sacrifices made during the initial lock down will have been for nothing. However, the damage to individuals and to the economies, will not just be retained –it will be significantly amplified” The Bulletin also provides some highlights of testing in the SADC region, further making emphasis on the importance of testing which remains quite low in most countries in the SADC region.  It tracks the socio-economic issues emanating from COVID-19.  Reference has also been made on the importance of ICT, as driver for economic growth as well as a facilitator for business continuity  in these challenging times. Key recommendations in the Bulletin are summarised below; 

(i)         Adjusting of public health and social measures

• The adjusting of measures should not be undertaken all at once, but should be considered at the subnational level, starting in areas with lowest incidence. Basic individual measures (e.g. isolation and care of suspect and confirmed cases, quarantine of contacts, hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette) should be maintained.Where feasible, measures should be lifted in a controlled, slow, and step-wise manner, for example, using two-week intervals to identify any adverse effects.

• In the absence of scientific evidence on the efficacy of each single measure, as a general principle, measures with the highest level of acceptability and feasibility and the fewest negative consequences could be introduced first and removed last.

• Protection of vulnerable populations should be central in the decision to maintain or lift a measure.

• Some measures (e.g. business closures) could be lifted first where the population or individual density is lower and could be lifted for part of the workforce before allowing 100% of the workforce to return to a business

(ii)       Testing for COVID-19

Member States are encouraged to increase their testing capacity to be able to isolate, trace contacts and treat patients to reduce the spread of COVID-19, focusing on those presenting with symptoms and the vulnerable among others 

(iii)        Social and Economic Sector

Member States are urged to revise priorities reflected in budget revenue, spending and financing to meet COVID-19 emergency demands and to contain fiscal deficits and surges in public debt, at manageable levels.

(iv)     Enhancing Connectivity in SADC

Member States are urged to invest in enhancing ICT capabilities to ensure business continuity, which will also have a positive ripple effect on economic growth. (SADC)

Key Words: SADC, COVID-19, Economic Growth