IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

Second survey on COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact on African countries : Survey extended until 20 July - The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and International Economics Consulting Ltd teamed up in April 2020, in order to carry out the first survey and provide insights into the economic effects of the pandemic on economic activity and trade for businesses across Africa. The analysis and full report has been published and can be accessed here.

Based on the positive responses of the April Survey, and with a view to shedding light on the policy responses and understanding how businesses are progressing during the pandemic, the team is proposing a second round of the survey. Please also note that the scope of the questionnaire has been slightly expanded (compared to the first round) to account for issues that are gaining even more importance in the context of the pandemic and relating to supply chains, technology, competition and gender.

This survey should take 15 minutes to complete, and please rest assured all responses will remain strictly confidential. Please click on the link below to begin the survey, the deadline for completing the survey is Monday 20 July. 

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/Covid-19-Africa-Impact

Thank you very much for giving your time to help us with our research. If you have any queries or comments about the survey or the research study, please do not hesitate to contact us by mail eca-atpc@un.org.  

INTERNATIONAL

Keeping trade open amid COVID-19 crisis central to achieving SDGs and economic recovery – In a report to the United Nations High-level Political Forum (HLPF) taking place from 7 to 16 July, the WTO Secretariat highlights that trade, fiscal and monetary policies are key to supporting global sustainable development and achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Amid the COVID-19 crisis, keeping trade open and fostering a favourable business environment will be critical to spur the renewed investment needed to meet the SDGs, the report says. The theme of the 2020 HLPF — to be held under the auspices of the United Nations Economic and Social Council — will be “Accelerated action and transformative pathways: Realizing the decade of action and delivery for sustainable development”. Participants will review progress on the SDGs in light of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. They will also reflect on how the international community can respond to the crisis in a way that will accelerate progress towards meeting the SDGs. The WTO reports annually to the HLPF on WTO efforts to achieve trade-specific targets in the SDGs. The HLPF is the United Nations' main forum for reviewing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, providing the opportunity for all UN members and specialised agencies to meet annually to evaluate progress on achieving the SDGs.

The WTO report to this year's HLPF highlights that the multilateral trading system has contributed significantly to unprecedented economic development over the last few decades. Greater certainty over trade policies has created predictability, creating the conditions for long-term business planning and investment.  However, a rise in trade-restrictive measures since 2019 — especially between major economies — and the suspension of activities of the WTO's Appellate Body have created new challenges for the multilateral trading system. In addition, the COVID-19 crisis is having a major impact on global supply and demand, leading to disruptions in global supply chains for both goods and services.  At this time of crisis, the multilateral trading system becomes all the more important, providing a forum for a coordinated response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the report says.  The report summarises the latest progress in the WTO's multilateral trade negotiations, highlighting that talks on reducing harmful fisheries subsidies are playing an important role in advancing developing countries' sustainable development objectives and meeting a key target in SDG 14.

 Other WTO work contributing to meeting the SDGs includes discussions within the Committee on Trade and Environment on issues such as the circular economy, domestic initiatives on waste and chemicals management and recycling; and through the Aid for Trade initiative, which supports the achievement of SDG 8a.  The report also highlights the importance of improving transparency in WTO members' trade policies, particularly those taken in response to the COVID-19 crisis.  Another issue covered by the report is the role of gender-responsive trade policies as a means of increasing women's participation in global trade and contributing to economic growth. These efforts were catalysed by the signing of the Buenos Aires Declaration on Trade and Women’s Economic Empowerment in December 2017 and the implementation of the WTO's Trade and Gender Action Plan for 2017-19.  (WTO)

Key Words: COVID-19, Trade, WTO

The digital Yuan and China’s potential financial revolution - China is leading the way among large economies in trialing Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Its official name is Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP). The digital Yuan, unlike Bitcoin and other private currencies, will be legal tender. Initially at least, it will be issued via Chinese commercial banks. This could mark a change in the international monetary system. The Chinese trial of a CBDC comes at a time when the existing international monetary system is being questioned. To some, the Dollar Standard is seen as increasingly anachronistic in a world where the US no longer dominates the global economy and trade. Changes in the global monetary system have often been associated with shifts in the balance of power, changes in trading patterns and financial innovation. It is hard, therefore, not to view the potential for CBDC through the prism of renewed great power rivalry, China’s rise in regional economic dominance and its very significant role in the global trading system. This paper offers an introductory look at the digital Yuan and CBDC generally with a view to assessing the possibility that such an innovation may change the way we look at money, identifying the efficiencies it may bring and forecasting the implications for the financial system and trade generally.

Differentiation between CBDC and existing forms of money will depend on design features, creating a wide dispersion of potential outcomes - Digital central bank money already exists in the shape of commercial bank reserves at the central bank. Digital money, or near money, also already exists in the form of household and corporate deposits at commercial banks. How different the DCEP and other CBDCs turns out to be from existing forms of digital money and near money will depend upon many features but perhaps most important among these are:

1. Whether or not it ends up replacing physical cash entirely
2. Availability and quantity, i.e. is it rationed or not and is it available to everyone or just commercial banks and financial institutions?
3. How it is made available, i.e. does distribution continue to take place through commercial banks or can households and corporates transact directly with the central banks thus by-passing the commercial banking system?
4. The degree of anonymity that is provided to the users of CBDC.

 (hinrich foundation)

Key Words: China, Digital Currency, Global Trade

Commonwealth and ILO join global partnership for inclusive e-commerce – COVID-19 has irreversibly changed the way we do things, showing the critical role of digital solutions that have kept businesses running and helped reduce the spread of the virus. However, many developing countries are still struggling to make use of e-commerce and other digital tools. At the same time, the momentum to ensure the digital economy becomes more inclusive is growing, championed by the eTrade for all initiative, which has just welcomed the Commonwealth Secretariat and the International Labour Organization (ILO) to its fold, increasing its membership to 32 organizations. The partnership, marking its fourth anniversary this month, has become even more important in light of the pandemic as countries seek to foster new strategies for economic recovery. E-commerce is expected to be at the vanguard of the recovery efforts as the world moves farther online. “The Commonwealth Secretariat is delighted to join the eTrade for all community,” said chief of the Commonwealth Secretariat, Patricia Scotland. “Without our collective efforts, there is a real risk that many individuals, businesses and even countries may be left behind by digitalization and excluded from participating effectively in the digital economy,” Ms. Scotland said. She added: “By leveraging the strengths of multiple stakeholders, we can help ensure individuals, entrepreneurs and businesses across the world are empowered to harness the benefits of e-commerce for inclusive and sustainable development.” The ILO is actively engaged in the debates on the digital economy and identifying knowledge gaps related to digital skills, working conditions and social protection. “We’re excited to join the partnership and look forward to making an important contribution to it,” said Vic van Vuuren, director of enterprises at the ILO. “E-commerce is a futuristic catalyst for economic growth, reducing the social deficit and caring for the planet whilst entrenching a decent work agenda,” he said.

Strong commitment, consolidating efforts - UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi commended the partnership for its strong commitment to ensuring no one is left behind in the digital economy despite the vagaries of the global landscape. “I’m delighted to witness the increasing number of eTrade for all partners in all of the initiative’s growing activities,” Dr. Kituyi said. “To ensure no one is left behind in the digital economy, the international community needs to work more, not less, together,” he added.  The partnership has grown and deepened. In the past year, it reached a significant milestone, with two external evaluations held over the last few months lauding its sterling work in leveraging the expertise and resources of all partners working together. The evaluations acknowledged that the partnership is making the digital economy more inclusive, thanks to its role as a transparent and efficient “global digital help desk”. The first virtual eWeek 2020, held in April, to which many eTrade for all partners contributed, illustrated that, even with various lockdown measures and travel restrictions, it’s possible to hold global, multistakeholder development dialogues. The event comprised a set of 14 online webinars and high-level policy dialogues that discussed, among others, how to leverage the contribution of e-commerce to mitigate the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. (UNCTAD)

Key Words: E-Commerce, Global Trade, ILO

PAN AFRICA

Can Africa take the Platform Economy forward? – To fully develop, Africa’s platform economy requires broad interventions including the standardisation of identity management, continent-wide interoperability and the creation of single markets, and the development of non-traditional digital infrastructures. Standardisation of identity management Identity management is a critical enabler of platform ecosystems. Identifiable users can be verified, giving them access to multiple services and capabilities, while their actions can be tracked and leveraged for insights. Complementary services can be marketed at them, and their reputations can be managed.

The importance of identity management to the platform economy is best evidenced by the role Facebook Connect has played in the rise of the ‘sharing economy’. Launched in 2008, Facebook Connect allows users to sign into third-party websites and apps using their Facebook credentials. Sharing economy platforms – Airbnb, Uber, TaskRabbit, Thumbtack and many others – all leverage Facebook Connect’s identity management capabilities.  Identity management as an enabler is particularly relevant in Africa, where large-scale migration often results in people losing their formal identities and creditworthiness. Weaker identification systems hamper financial inclusion.

According to the World Bank, an estimated 1.1 billion people worldwide cannot officially prove their identities. The World Economic Forum8; 9  estimates that nearly half of that population lives in sub-Saharan Africa. While various African nations have been working to solve the identity problem internally, there have also been efforts to create a standardised identity management framework for the continent. The World Bank’s Identity for Development Initiative is one such programme aimed at fostering collaboration on a solution.  As previously mentioned, a continent-wide interoperable framework for identity management may be particularly valuable in Africa considering the scale of intra-continental economic migration. A common identity would aid migrants and support new economic interactions between countries. Further, interoperability in identity management could create strong network effects within the platform economy, with platform companies able to build scale across the continent much faster. And, as evidenced by the impact of IndiaStack on fintech innovation in the South Asian nation, a common identity management framework would spur platform innovation, particularly in financial services and commerce.  Continent-wide interoperability and the creation of single markets Interoperability between markets allows platform companies to build scale. In this regard, trade tariffs and regulatory fragmentation are among several barriers to creating strong network effects across Africa. Recent efforts to address these challenges could however catalyse the platform economy.

First, the Smart Africa initiative aims to create a single digital market across the continent, modelled along the lines of a similar effort underway in the European Union. Further, the imminent launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is another important development, even though its launch has been slightly delayed by COVID-19. The trade bloc will complement the move towards a single digital market by allowing platform businesses to scale across the continent with lower regulatory friction.  The African Union’s Single African Air Transport Market project is an example of efforts underway to break down regulatory discrepancies. The initiative aims to enable intra-Africa trade and logistics integration, with 28 countries already signed up.(Standard Bank)

Key Words: Trade Policy, Africa, AfCFTA

Quality Infrastructure  in 21st Century Africa – Africa is facing a monumental task to prioritise, accelerate and scale up quality infrastructure development. It can take several decades for an infrastructure project to go from idea to operation, but with 28 African countries having doubled their population in the 25 years between 1990 and 2015, the UN projects that another 26 countries will double their population between 2017 and 2050 (UNDESA, 2019[1]). The status quo will clearly not suffice to meet Africa’s demographic challenges and its development objectives, as enshrined in the African Union (AU)’s Agenda 2063. With this background, this report identifies the impediments to progress as well as emerging new practices, and sets out strategic recommendations for the way ahead. It draws on recent analyses and entrepreneurial initiatives, case studies and high-level expert meetings. While the report is independent, it is also inspired by and supports the innovative infrastructure business models being developed by the AUC and the AU Development Agency-New Partnership for Economic Development (AUDA-NEPAD) in the context of the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) for building up integrated regional economic corridors.

New models for infrastructure development are necessary as Africa’s demographics transform its economic geography  - Investment in African infrastructure is a global public good in the context of the worldwide significance of Africa’s demographic evolution and its necessary productive transformation. The largest addition to the workforce in the 21st century will be in the African continent, which is set to experience a 40% increase in its working age population in just the 12 years from 2018 to 2030. In 25 years from now, Africa’s population will be 70% larger, adding nearly as much as the entire current population of the Americas, which is 1 billion. By 2050, Africa’s population will reach 2.4 billion, the share of African people increasing from 17% of the global population in 2018 to 26% in 2050, that is, one quarter of the world’s total. Population in subSaharan Africa will more than double by above 1 billion in just these 30 years.1

Urban population is projected to increase from 472 million or 40% of the total in 2015 to 1.3 billion or 56% in 2050. There will be some 120 cities of more than 1 million people, including several megacities and a significant number of other very large cities, although two-thirds of the urban transition will take place in smaller intermediary cities and towns, alongside new kinds of rural agglomerations.  (OECD)

Key Words: Infrastructure Policy, Africa, AfCFTA

AfCFTA Africa’s plan to ride out crippling coronavirus crisis, says Vera Songwe – Africa does not need a Marshall Plan to ride out the ongoing coronavirus crisis. It has a more powerful tool in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to use in accelerating regional and economic integration and prepare for uncertain times. This was said Tuesday by Ms. Vera Songwe, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), in a virtual panel discussion to mark the inaugural Africa Integration Day that was set aside by the African Union to mark the implementation of the AfCFTA. Integration, said Ms. Songwe, is key for Africa’s growth and attainment of Agenda 2030 for sustainable development and Africa’s development aspirations as found in Agenda 2063. “We need to talk about Africa and the AfCFTA. Our Marshall Plan is the AfCFTA. The AfCFTA is our plan so let us take it and run with it,” she said.

Ms. Songwe said with the AfCFTA, Africa had collectively penned its own blueprint for growth. “The Marshall Plan for Europe was about 160 percent of their GDP traded to bring back growth after the war. What happened to us is that we were all waiting for a health crisis but we got an economic crisis first which was very steep, very deep, not just for us but for the rest of the world,” she said. Ms. Songwe said the ECA estimates that economic growth in Africa in 2020 will drop from 3.2 percent to -2.8 percent to about zero percent growth as a result of COVID-19, a situation she described as disastrous, throwing an extra 20 million people into poverty in a continent where almost 300 million people cannot afford one meal a day. “COVID came and has taken us quite far behind because we need to reassess where is it that we want to go and how we want to go. We definitely need to do things differently,” she said.

Ms. Songwe added that it was crucial for Africa to integrate its financial systems to create a mutualized system of financial stability that works for the continent or regional monetary cooperation as in East Asia. “The Afreximbank Exchange Facility is an excellent step in the right direction. But more is needed to integrate our economies and financial sectors,” the Executive Secretary said. This means “when there is a crisis we come together and we pull and mutualize our resources so that those who are the most hit get some resources”.

“So we do not need to go the long distance of common currency to get a mutualized system of financial stability that works for the continent. We need to ensure that as we build the AfCFTA and trade integration, we begin to build stronger, much more robust monetary and fiscal systems that can ensure that as a continent we actually can work with each other in a more effective way,” Ms. Songwe added. (UNECA)

Key Words: COVID-19, Africa, AfCFTA

Silver linings for Africa from Covid-19 – The narrow dependence on commodity revenues has been a long-standing problem in Africa. This means that many countries’ economies are subject to boom-bust scenarios based on the vagaries of global developments. Forced by necessity rather than choice, economic diversification in Africa now needs to be ramped up significantly. There is therefore an opportunity to use the crisis effectively to strengthen industrialisation efforts towards productive, strategic and employment-generating long-term goals.

In this context, two areas stand out as opportunities. First, the accelerated digitisation and technological focus means that companies and governments will need to become agile and responsive in the face of fast-evolving threats and challenges or risk becoming permanent laggards. Upgrading their ‘operating systems’ to be fit and ready for the fourth industrial revolution is now non-negotiable for both public and private sector entities. If done well, this could dramatically increase the efficacy of the public service, whilst also allowing businesses to reach constituencies that had previously been overlooked. The impact of increased connectivity and innovation as a result of these disruptions could be pronounced – offering opportunities to overcome many traditional barriers to entry.

Second, as food security becomes an issue amid heightened nationalism and border closures, African countries can unlock their significant comparative advantage in this regard to become the breadbasket of the world. Africa has about 600-million hectares of uncultivated arable land, roughly 60% of the global total. But the continent also has among the lowest agriculture yields in the world, making it ripe for positive disruption.  Both of these areas will need to be underpinned by the African Continental Free Trade Area, which will enhance regional integration, create more efficient value chains and unlock e-commerce potential – all of which are necessary to facilitate the transition towards modern, competitive and sustainable African economies.

Regional cooperation - Lastly, collective African leadership has long been an aspirational but elusive concept. Despite sound intentions, the plans for greater unity have failed to fully materialise due to political agendas, divergent visions, economic fragmentation and a lack of cohesion. However, recent developments have added renewed impetus to the idea that a new spirit of continental leadership may be in the offing. Indeed, the response from regional bodies throughout the pandemic has impressed, as noted in a PSC report by the Pretoria-based Institute of Security Studies. Starting with the Africa Centres for Disease Control which convened a meeting of continental health ministers as early as February to map out a strategic response (and have subsequently provided technical, logistical and operational support to countries), to the activation of an Africa coronavirus crisis fund and the accelerated launch of the African Risk capacity insurance scheme to deal with contagious disease outbreaks, the continent’s regional agencies have been on the front foot in their responses.  (African Business)

Key Words: COVID-19, Africa, AfCFTA

EAST AFRICA

Equipping East African women digital entrepreneurs with skills to thrive – Advocates from UNCTAD’s eTrade for Women initiative are working hard to ensure women digital entrepreneurs in the developing world are building both the network and resilience they need to thrive in the digital economy now and in a post-coronavirus context. The first virtual masterclass for East African women digital entrepreneurs, to be held from 8 to 10 July, is well timed to advance this cause. It brings together women founders of digital businesses from Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, reflecting the dynamism and variety of the digital landscape in the region. The women share the drive to acquire new skills, make a positive impact in their communities and help them recover better from the economic blow of COVID-19. While the pandemic is a human health and economic tragedy, it is also an accelerator for digital transformation and e-commerce. “We need to use this moment to ensure women, especially those in the developing world, have a seat at the table and are able to harness the digital gains,” said Shamika N. Sirimanne, UNCTAD’s technology and logistics director.

The e-commerce potential - Following the first two in-person masterclass sessions in North Macedonia and Côte d’Ivoire, the masterclass for East Africa seeks to tap into and build on the digital momentum in the region. Like much of Africa, the region has low internet penetration. According to the International Telecommunication Union, in 2019 only 28% of Africans used the internet. Of the total African population, 34% of those using the internet are men, while only  23% are women. Online shoppers are also relatively few. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, Kenya, Mauritius, Namibia and South Africa are the only countries where the share of online shoppers exceeds 8%. In most other countries, it is below 5%. Internet subscriptions and smartphones are relatively costly, contributing to the low rates of e-commerce in the region. Other factors include weak and unsupportive policy and regulatory frameworks. However, with the coronavirus pandemic accelerating digital transformation globally, the window of opportunity offered by e-commerce is widening.

Learning to thrive in times of crisis - The three-day event targets established women digital entrepreneurs from selected East African countries and includes networking, learning and policy engagement sessions.  It will be hosted by eTrade for Women advocate for anglophone Africa, Clarisse Iribagiza from Rwanda, CEO and co-founder of HeHe Limited, in conjunction with eTrade for all partners, thanks to support from the Netherlands. Emphasizing the role of the digital economy in promoting development, Ms. Iribagiza said small businesses need technology to level up. (UNCTAD)

Key Words: COVID-19, East Africa Regional Trade, E-Commerce

Rwanda setting example for electronic waste recycling – The first African country to ban plastic bags now has another notch to add to its environmental belt – a comprehensive approach to recycling and repurposing electronic waste.“Rwanda is among the few countries that have an electronic waste policy and regulations, and is the second in Africa to have a state-of-the-art e-waste dismantling and recycling facility,” said Olivier Mbera, country general manager of EnviroServe Rwanda, which runs the recycling facility.“Rwanda is setting a great example for other countries in Africa,” he added. Just three years ago, Mbera was overseeing the development and implementation of Rwanda’s e-waste management project in his role with Rwanda’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MINICOM). “At the time, the government had been promoting ICT penetration in rural areas through different initiatives such as a one laptop per child program and an off-grid rural electrification program, and there was a move to have all services delivered online through Irembo,” Mbera said. “However, there was no solution for what to do once these electronic and electrical products reached the end of their life. The government and other private institutions had been renting warehouses to store all the e-waste, which was expensive and unsustainable. The government wanted a solution that took a whole-of-life approach.”

Electronic waste (e-waste) is generated from discarded mobile phones, computers, stereos and light bulbs, as well as large household appliances such as televisions, refrigerators, washing machines and air conditioners. E-waste management has become a major challenge facing many African countries because of lack of awareness, lack of environmental legislation and limited financial resources. Currently, e-waste in Africa is predominately disposed through open dumping, burning and landfilling, but with heavy metals and other hazardous substances present in electronics, these methods have potentially serious implications for human health and the environment. So, in 2008 Rwanda began policy discussions around how to manage its e-waste. After consulting those involved in the sector, with support from the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF), the country approved an e-waste policy in 2016. “The policy provided guiding principles in dealing with e-waste and roles and responsibilities for institutions. The next step was to create legal instruments such as a law and regulations and adequate infrastructure to handle the increasing generation of e-waste,” Mbera said.  (Trade4devnews)

Key Words: COVID-19, East Africa, Trade

WEST AFRICA

Use deferment of AfCFTA to strategise competitive market response – Economist, Prof Godfred Bopkin has advised government to strategise its competitive market response following the postponement of the implementation of The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). According to him, for Ghana to competitively chalk gains across market sectors in the sub-region, it must make investments in agriculture in order to compete in the services sector. Speaking in an interview with GhanaWeb, Prof Bopkin explained; “The reasons for us [Ghana] to take advantage of the prioritisation and investment in agriculture is that, it offers us [Ghana] a low hanging fruit within the sub-Saharan Africa region to be able to take advantage of the current postponement of the AfCFTA to strategise and be competitive on the market”  “This is because if you look at the broad sectors within Africa right now, we [Ghana] cannot compete in the area of financial services because we have not capitalised much in that area so we must critically identify the sectors where Ghana wants to compete within the AfCFTA,” he added.  The Professor of Finance said even though the initial implementation date of the AfCFTA has been deferred to January 2021, Ghana is required to strengthen its private sector to compensate any impending losses that may come from hosting the AfCFTA secretariat.  “Though Ghana is hosting the AFCFTA secretariat, it does not mean that we will be hosting the gains that come with the agreement,” he cautioned.  The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat is now targeting January 2021 for the commencement of the implementation of the pan-African free trade agreement following its postponement due to the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic. According to the AfCFTA Secretary-General, Wamkele Mene, it is imperative for member countries to conclude negotiations on trade tariffs and other protocols under the AfCFTA within the next six months. The continental free-trade area would be the world’s largest economic free trade zone, adjudged by spatial size and population, and is expected to increase intra-African trade from the current 12 percent of total trade by African countries to 52 percent by 2023. (Ghana Web)

Key Words: Ghana, AfCFTA, Regional Integration

SOUTHERN AFRICA

A political economy analysis of the Nacala and Beira corridors – While trade and transport costs in Africa are high, those faced in Malawi are higher than in the wider region. International partners are keen to invest in improving trade and transportation, with a view to promoting socio-economic development in the region, but trade and transport are highly political in both Malawi and Mozambique. This study maps out the different factors and actors that shape current use of the Nacala and Beira corridors connecting Malawi to the Mozambican coast. High-level political relations have fluctuated through time, and though cordial, do not provide a solid basis for improving efficiency along the Nacala rail corridor, with domestic priorities on both sides dominating cross-border cooperation. Thus far, Beira has emerged in Mozambique as the more efficient port serving Malawi and the wider region where state-business relations have aligned with political objectives. Nacala has been made efficient for coal exports but coordination for other trade is lacking, with political interests more geared towards a competition for control of rents. Mozambican road transporters have also the upper hand over Malawian transport, though the market is highly segmented for imports and exports and different goods. External support to improve efficiency will need to take account of the vested state-business interests round the ports and corridors, particularly in Mozambique, and rekindle multi-actor cross-border coordination mechanisms, ideally including different government bodies, private service providers as well as businesses engaged in exports/imports, and learning from past failures to coordinate better. (ecdpm)

Key Words: SA, Regional Integration, FTA

Southern Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook July 2020 – The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with the start of regional harvests in Southern Africa. Moving into the 2020/21 marketing year, opening stocks were 20 percent below average. Below average opening stocks were offset by the region's above-average 2020 maize harvest despite dryness experienced in many areas earlier in the year. Southern Africa, which is typically self-sufficient in maize, is expected to register well above average net maize supply ---over four million MT. This supply will be above the previous 2019/20 marketing year and similar to 2018/19. Structurally deficit countries are expected to maintain typical import dependence, while the import gap in Zimbabwe will be well above average. South Africa, the region's largest maize exporter will have an above-average surplus while Zambia will maintain its surplus at below-average levels. Malawi will also have an above-average surplus.

In terms of intra-regional trade, South Africa's maize export volumes to Zimbabwe are expected to remain above average while Zambia's exports are expected to remain below average. Given anticipated imports by Kenya from international markets, export demand from Tanzania destined for East Africa are expected to be limited. Some international trade (via South Africa) is also expected. After reaching elevated levels in late 2019 and early 2020, regional maize prices declined rapidly between March and May 2020. Nonetheless prices are expected to be well above average in Zimbabwe, DRC, Madagascar, and Malawi for the remainder of the 2020/21 marketing year and near average for the rest of the countries

Although food availability within the region is expected to be adequate and only localized price anomalies are expected, food access among market-dependent households is expected to remain constrained due to COVID-19 lockdown measures. Export restrictions designed to secure domestic food availability in addition to existing COVID-19 related movement restrictions and intensified border screenings may compound food access constraints in deficit countries.  (Relief Web)

Key Words: Southern Africa, Market, COVID-19

South Africa’s trade data update – the May 2020 data reveals the effect of eased lockdown restrictions –  Since the beginning of May 2020 South Africa gradually started to ease lockdown restrictions with a consequent increase in trade reflected in pdf South Africa’s trade data for May (262 KB) which was released by the South African Revenue Services (SARS) on 30 June 2020. However, while exports show signs of improvements imports have remained relatively constant throughout the lockdown period, which is at significantly lower levels than imports in May 2019. Consequently, South Africa has a trade surplus for May 2020 after a significant trade deficit for April 2020. In comparison with May 2019, imports for May 2020 are 22 per cent lower, mainly due to a decline in imports from Europe, US, India, Nigeria and Eswatini. Respective imports from China, Brazil, Netherlands, Mozambique and Finland for May 2020 are 12 per cent, 5 per cent, 18 per cent, 13 per cent and 91 per cent higher than imports for May 2019. Imports from these countries are either personal protection equipment (PPE) and medical equipment (China and Netherlands (animal vaccines)) or food products including chicken (Brazil and Netherlands), rice (Brazil), oats and wheat (Finland), soybean and seed oils (Netherlands), and bananas, cashews and macadamia nuts from Mozambique.

Imports from some countries have shown a steady increase during the lockdown period; while total imports for May 2020 are 9 per cent lower than imports for March 2020, imports from countries including China, Japan, Spain, Brazil and South Korea for May exceed imports from these countries prior to March 2020. The increase in imports from China and South Korea is mainly due to imports of PPE and diagnostic reagents and equipment. The increase in imports from Brazil is food products, from Spain wind-powered generating sets and Japan original motor vehicle component parts. Since April China has surpassed Germany as the main supplying country due to imports of significant quantities of PPE and equipment with medical applications. (tralacBlog)

Key Words: South Africa, Trade, COVID-19