ATPC DAILY DIGEST 12 AUGUST 2020
Today’s Topics:
The future belongs to trade agreements of varying geometries – (WTO)
US trade policy under Biden: Will it differ from Trump? – (hinrich foundation)
Rwanda: Why Consumer Price Index Rose By 11.5% - (New Times)
Nigerian Trade Office Targets 50% Share in GDP By 2023 – (Premium Times)
SADC, EU and Germany step-up cooperation towards regional response to COVID-19 – (SADC)
SADC Senior Officials meet ahead of 40th Ordinary Summit and Council of Ministers meeting- (tralac)
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT
A Guide To Gender Mainstreaming in African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) National AfCFTA Strategies – As COVID-19 spreads rapidly across the continent, evidence highlighting the disproportionate economic and social impact of the pandemic on women is clear. The vast majority of women’s employment is in the informal sector, which has been worst hit by the economic fallout of COVID-19. Border closures have cut off livelihoods of entire communities that depend on trading carried out by small-scale and informal cross-border traders, who are predominantly women. Women are also disproportionately represented in industries that are more affected by COVID-19, including leather, textiles and apparel. Likewise, the pandemic has put in peril other sectors that women depend on for their livelihoods, including smallholder farming, horticulture, travel, tourism and hospitality. Of particular concern, is the exponential increase in gender-based violence of all types.
Notwithstanding these challenges, there is a unique opportunity in a post-pandemic Africa to put women at the centre of building back more inclusive economies that serve the AU Agenda 2063 and the broader 2030 global agenda that “leaves no one behind”. Extending equal economic participation to women in the AfCFTA requires policy makers to analyse both the opportunities for and potential barriers to inclusive gains. In an effort to enhance the knowledge of policy makers and other key stakeholders on how to advance gender equal outcomes in AfCFTA implementation, the African Trade Policy Centre (ATPC) and the Institute for Economic Development and Planning (IDEP) are organizing a four-week online course entitled “A Guide To Gender Mainstreaming in National AfCFTA Strategies”.
Applicants to the course are expected to have, as a minimum, a bachelor’s degree preferably with a background in trade, economic development and international relations and courses related to statistics, planning, project man-agement and monitoring project evaluation. In addition, two years of work experience will be required. Women candidates are strongly encouraged to apply. Until the registration deadline, participants are accepted to the course on a rolling basis and subject to availability of slots. Applications must be completed exclusively on IDEP online application platform at https://www.unidep.org/?appl (UNECA)
INTERNATIONAL
The future belongs to trade agreements of varying geometries - The multilateral trading system, along with regional and bilateral trade agreements, all share the task of regulating global trade, Deputy Director-General Alan Wolff said on 11 August. Speaking at a virtual event organized by the American Association of Exporters and Importers on the question of whether the future of trade is multilateral or bilateral, DDG Wolff said the clear answer is both as the world becomes smaller and integration more complex. His remarks are below. My thanks to the American Association of Exporters and Importers for inviting the WTO to participate with the WCO in your 99th Annual Conference. The AAEI is very important to the WTO. The WTO exists solely to serve world trade, in which your members are heavily engaged. The topic you have chosen for us to address today is a very relevant one: What is the Future of Trade? Multilateral or Bilateral. The multilateral trading system – the rules incorporated into the WTO -- along with the contributions of the WCO, on the one hand, and regional and bilateral trade agreements, on the other, share the task of regulating global trade. They are complementary. It is not a choice of one or the other, multilateral or bilateral. Each has its strengths and drawbacks. There are currently 305 regional trade agreements (RTAs), that is, sub-multilateral trade agreements, in force which are notified to the WTO, covering goods, services or goods and services. (The number of notifications – 494 - is higher because an RTA having goods and services aspects requires two notifications in accordance to WTO rules; also, there are accessions to agreements and these have to be notified). (WTO)
Key Words: WTO, Global Trade, COVID-19
COVID-19: South Africa, India call for enabling technology transfer in TRIPS – South Africa and India have called for “reinvigorating” the World Trade Organization’s 1998 work program on electronic commerce in relation to the intellectual property provisions in the TRIPS Agreement for operationalizing technology transfer to developing countries to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. At the WTO’s TRIPS Council meeting on 30 July, members discussed South Africa’s proposal (IP/C/W/665) on the need to mainstream the discussion on the impact that intellectual property provisions can have on development, particularly centering around the TRIPS provisions that are listed in paragraph 4 of the 1998 work program on electronic commerce. Paragraph 4 of the 1998 e-commerce work program says that “the Council for TRIPS shall examine and report on the intellectual property issues arising in connection with electronic commerce.”
“The issues to be examined shall include:
* protection and enforcement of copyright and related rights;
* protection and enforcement of trademarks; and
* new technologies and access to technology.”
Against this backdrop, in its proposal, South Africa argued that “intellectual property can have an impact on development, so the link between intellectual property (IP) and development, as well as the relationship with the various Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) need to be mainstreamed into the discussion of the TRIPS Council.” The time has come for stepping up the discussion on this crucial issue, particularly against the backdrop of the raging Covid-19 pandemic, South Africa argued. Even though the issue of electronic commerce was a standing item on the TRIPS Council agenda, members failed to have focussed discussions until now. South Africa urged members to come up with their respective proposals, share information and national experiences, pointing out how the 2030 SDGs may be achieved through an effective framework for technology transfer. Citing the UNCTAD Digital Economy Report of 2019, South Africa said “the world economy is transforming fast as a result of the rapid spread of new digital technologies, with major implications for Agenda 2030 on Sustainable Development.” (TWN)
Key Words: TWN, Trade Policy, COVID-19
US trade policy under Biden: Will it differ from Trump? - The Trump administration relationship with the WTO can best be understood as a fundamental repudiation of the traditional US philosophy on multilateral trade governance. (For more on this, see Politico's recent article on Trump's WTO criticism). The post-war US approach to institutionalized trade governance has been to view the global trade system as a means to a much larger end: an opportunity to foster cooperative, rules-based relationships amongst nations that had fought two world wars in two generations, and to generate global economic development built on interdependence. The Trump administration has essentially argued that under this traditional approach, US economic interests – especially those of average workers – have been thrown overboard in favor of the perceived “greater good”. On balance, the WTO has been a “bad deal”, which has permitted other countries to “take advantage” of the US. The US has therefore been entirely justified in taking unilateral trade actions outside WTO channels and in disrupting the functioning of the dispute settlement Appellate Body, which has, in the judgment of the Trump administration, far exceeded its mandate in ways that are counterproductive to US interests.
Here, we are likely to see deeper differences in a Biden administration. Throughout his long career, Biden has been a stalwart supporter of the post-war system of multilateral institutions and, more broadly, in the value of working cooperatively with allies. Biden has made it clear that repairing alliances and undoing the damage done by Trump to cooperative institutional relationships would be one of his first and highest priorities upon assuming the Presidency. The perceived US “war” on the WTO would cease under a Biden administration. At the same time however, there would inevitably be tensions between Biden’s worker-based approach to trade and the strictures of the WTO. It remains to be seen, for example, how some of his “Buy American” proposals could be squared with US obligations under the WTO Government Procurement Agreement. Something will have to give. But a Biden administration would attach much greater importance to the rules-based system and would be considerably more cautious about actions that could undermine institutions and alliances. (hinrich foundation)
Key Words: Global Trade, Trade Policy, COVID-19
PAN AFRICA
ECA Report Urges African Countries to Harmonize Trade and Transport Regulations in the Fight against COVID-19- The Regional Integration and Trade Division (RITD) at ECA released a report entitled “Facilitating Cross-Border Trade Through a Coordinated African Response to COVID-19”. The report provides a critical assessment of existing border restrictions and regulations, with a view to providing guidance on how to strike an appropriate balance between curbing the long term spread of the virus and facilitating emergency and essential trade. Mr. Stephen Karingi, Director of RITD, commenting on the report, noted that COVID-19 may become the “new normal” for some time, forcing African Governments to adapt and innovate in order to facilitate new “safe” ways of conducting cross-border trade. Maintaining trade flows as much as possible during the pandemic will be crucial in providing access to essential food and medical items and in limiting negative impacts on jobs and poverty. Following the COVID-19 outbreak, nearly all African countries have imposed various degrees of restrictions on cross-border movement of goods and people, including suspension of international flights, quarantine requirements for entrants, and closures of land and maritime borders. Under a set of strict regulations, these closures target reducing movement of people while allowing exemptions for the movement of emergency and essential freight supplies. Such regulations typically cover mandatory testing, sanitizing trucks, limiting the numbers of crew members, and designating transit resting areas. These restrictions and regulations have helped in the continent’s COVID-19 battle, but they have also had negative impacts on cross-border trade and economic activity. This risks impeding the continent’s progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals set out in the 2030 Agenda and the aspirations in Agenda 2063.
In light of these challenges, it is crucial that African countries cooperate to harmonize COVID-19 border regulations in order to reduce delays, while not undermining the safety of trade. To that end, the report proposes fast tracking implementation of existing Regional Economic Community (REC) COVID-19 guidelines, including through establishing regional coordinating committees with the primary task of addressing operational issues at national borders. In addition, these regional efforts must also be coordinated at the continental level through the African Union. A common COVID-19 AU Protocol on trade and transport is needed given the overlap in membership of RECs and shared trade facilitation goals of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). In developing such a protocol, the experiences and best practice of RECs need to be taken into account. A common African Union COVID-19 test certificate for truck drivers and crew members will also be required to facilitate movement of essential personnel across borders with the least possible interference. (UNECA)
Words: UNECA, Trade, Regional Integration
The Impact of COVID-19 on Secondary Education in Africa - Amplifying Challenges and Opening New Opportunities – Economic contraction in Africa due to COVID-19 threatens the ability of countries to invest in secondary education at a time when demand is increasing. This will have long term impacts on the future of Africa's labour force, which requires the skills gained through high quality and relevant secondary education to adapt to a digitized, fast changing, and globalized world of work. Demand for secondary education is increasing due to rising primary completion rates and a growing youth population. Great progress has been made in ensuring access to primary education for the continent's youth, faster than many other developing regions at comparable starting points. By 2018, gross enrollment rates in primary education in Sub-Saharan Africa had increased to almost 99 percent.[1] While growth in primary completion rates has stalled in recent years, rising enrollment and completion rates over the last decade have placed increasing pressure on secondary education systems. According to one estimate, just one in three adolescents in Sub-Saharan Africa who qualify for secondary school can currently be accommodated due to limited places.[2]
At the same time, Africa's youth population is expected to nearly double to 456 million by 2050. By 2075, almost half of the world's young people will be African.[3] These demographic shifts will have profound effects on secondary education systems. Modelling done by the Education Commission for Mastercard Foundation's report, Secondary Education in Africa: Preparing Youth for the Future of Work, suggests that demand for secondary education is expected to nearly double between now and 2030, from 60 million students enrolled today, to 106 million students by 2030.[4] In Rwanda, for example, one study projects that the secondary school population will almost double in the next four years, while enrollment rates in primary school are expected to remain static.[5] (allAFrica)
Words: COVID-19, Africa, Regional Integration
Review of Nine African 'Blue Economy' Projects Shows What Works and What Doesn't– Africa has 38 coastal countries and six islands whose maritime industry is estimated to be worth US$1 trillion per year. This figure will increase as they develop their offshore hydrocarbon, energy, tourism, maritime transport, shipping and fishing sectors. These industries are collectively called the “blue economy”. They are recognised as central to Africa’s sustainable development. They can also play a key role in achieving the continent’s Agenda 2063. This includes achieving integration, prosperity and peace. But for this to happen, it’s important that the benefits are equally distributed. And resources must be used in a way that’s ecologically sustainable. My colleagues and I reviewed nine case studies of blue economy projects across the continent. These included the Kribi Port project in Cameroon and the Lamu Port project in Kenya. We were able to extract findings from both successful and unsuccessful projects. Findings from unsuccessful projects showed that governments had the right intentions. But the emphasis was on economic outcomes. Social equity and ecological sustainability got limited attention. We concluded that, to achieve blue economy goals, coastal states must reconsider their strategies. We propose a collaborative framework. This would amalgamate the top-down and bottom-up approaches to blue economy management. It would entail active engagement between government, industry, other stakeholders and the local communities throughout the process – from conception to implementation.
What success looks like - The projects we looked at all involved investors, governments and communities. They included marine transport and shipping, port infrastructure, fisheries and aquaculture, marine phosphate mining and marine protection. The nine projects we looked at affected 11 countries. These were Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Namibia, The Gambia, Madagascar, Seychelles, Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco. Three of the case studies were from Kenya, while one cut across five countries. Drawing on our case studies we found that successful initiatives accentuated the involvement of local communities and promoted sustenance of natural ecosystems. They successfully balanced ecological, social and economic features. This happened through the active engagement of the government, and other stakeholders, with local communities. Examples included seaweed farming in Kenya and the community of fishers project in Madagascar. Another was the community-led mangrove conservation and restoration project – “Mikoko Pamoja” – in Kenya. (The Conversation)
Key Words: Africa, Blue Economy, Regional Integration
Vera Songwe urges China to participate in the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative in support of Africa’s liquidity needs – Economic Commission for Africa’s Executive Secretary, Vera Songwe, has called on China to honour the pledge made by President Xi Jinping on his country’s participation in the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), which she said, “would go a long way towards supporting Africa’s liquidity needs during this difficult time.”“Time is of the essence. Countries need resources now,” she added. Speaking at a webinar co-organized by the Chinese Mission to the African Union and the ECA on Tuesday, Ms. Songwe emphasized the need for fiscal space for governments, which she noted is critical for an effective COVID-19 response, as well as job creation through the use of ICT and trade. “Africa is losing over $65 billion every month in lockdowns. Effective support will require countries are given budget space,” she said. The webinar, which saw a high-level participation by representatives from member states, the African Union and Chinese Think Tanks and institutions was underpinned by the continued need to strengthen solidarity between China and Africa in the fight against the Coronavirus global Pandemic.
She stressed the need for transparency in both China and African countries to ensure resources go to the neediest, saying, “African countries need more medical equipment and PPE support and we must ensure all resources in support of COVID must be used efficiently.” She thanked China for the support in the provision of health material through the African Medical Supplies platform, adding, this has helped increase testing capability on the Continent. For his part, Ambassador Liu Yuxi, head of the mission to the African Union and representative to the ECA elaborated on the solidarity efforts between China and Africa in the ongoing fight against the Pandemic. “China has been at the forefront, calling on the international community to increase support in the fight against the epidemic in Africa,” he said, echoing President Xi Jinping's “Support for Africa” speech at the special summit of the G20 leaders and the 73rd World Health Assembly. Ambassador Liu also touched on the recently held special China-Africa summit that he said, has sent a strong message to the international community on the strength of the cooperation between China and Africa, which he said also serves to contribute to the kind of global unity required in the fight against the epidemic. (UNECA)
Key Words: Africa, China , Regional Integration
EAST AFRICA
Rwanda: Why Consumer Price Index Rose By 11.5% – The Consumer Price Index in Rwanda increased by 11.5 per cent between July 2019 and July 2020, according to latest figures from the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) on August 10, 2020. This, according to NISR, means that for an item which was costing Rwf500 in July 2019, the price rose to Rwf557.5 in July 2020. The statistics are contained in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) JULY 2020 released by NISR. CPI is a measure of the average change in prices, over time, of goods and services purchased by households, such as food and transportation. According to the figures, Urban CPI increased by 9.2 percent in July 2020 compared to the same month of 2019, while Rural CPI increased by 13.2 percent on annual basis and increased by 1.6 percent on monthly basis. The annual average inflation rate between July 2020 and July 2019 was 7 percent. In urban arears, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 11.9 percent; while alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics increased by 25.1 percent in July 2020 compared to July 2019. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels' increased by 4.3 percent and transport increased by 22.6 percent.
On an annual basis, the local goods index increased by 10.1 percent, the imported goods index grew by 6.3 percent, while the fresh products index increased by 19.6 percent. Fresh products are food products which have seasonal fluctuations. The energy index increased by 5 percent.
Prices of some food items have gone up significantly. This is the case for beans which went up from Rwf450 a kilogramme in 2019 to Rwf650 a kilogramme in parts of the country such as Burera District in Northern Province even during bean harvest season (in July 2020). At Kimironko Market in Gasabo District, the price of mangoes more than doubled from Rwf1,000 to Rwf2,500 a kilogramme, according to fruit dealers. Still at the same market, mandarin (citrus fruit), a kilogramme saw its cost jump from Rwf1,500 to Rwf2,500, a more than half rise. Factors that drove up such price include the shortage of supply compounded with disrupted trade with Burundi which constrained import of such fruits into Rwanda, according to information from the Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB). (New Times)
Key Words: East Africa, Business, Trade
WEST AFRICA
Nigerian Trade Office Targets 50% Share in GDP By 2023 - The Nigerian Office for Trade Negotiations (NOTN) is targeting an increase in the share of trade in Gross Domestic Product to 50 per cent by 2023. As of the first quarter in 2020, data from the National Bureau of Statistics gave trade's contribution to Nominal GDP as 15.09 per cent, lower than the 16.95 per cent contribution in the same quarter of the previous year, as well as the preceding quarter's 15.66 per cent. The Acting Chief Trade Negotiator/Director General, NOTN, Victor Liman, disclosed this as part of the overview of the newly launched Nigeria trade policy journal. The journal titled 'A Nigerian Policy Roadmap: Perspectives and Insights' builds on the 2002 trade policy regime capturing contemporary changes, developments, and recent COVID-19 challenges and issues. The trade office said the Trade Policy Roadmap contains proactive strategies and responsive policy measures to address current and future challenges. "We are all aware that COVID-19 has impacted all sectors and human interaction in Nigeria in the short, medium, and long run. "Consequently, we are experiencing trade deficits; loss of businesses and investments; healthcare systems overstretched, welfare, tourism, and aviation impacted; free trade under threat; borders closed; supply chains disrupted; aviation suspended; changes to policies on trade, healthcare, budgets, ICT, oil, and gas. "Hence, there is the need for a Trade Policy Roadmap to sustain the economy, recover losses and sustainably grow the economy; through a broad multi-sectoral and coordinated response by Nigeria domestically and regionally," Mr Liman said. He said the policy was drawn up as a preparatory work to be a reference source for further engagement with critical, relevant and strategic stakeholders. (Premium Times)
Key Words: West Africa, Trade, Business
SOUTHERN AFRICA
SADC, EU and Germany step-up cooperation towards regional response to COVID-19 – As part of the on-going regional response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Executive Secretary of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), Her Excellency Dr. Stergomena Lawrence Tax and His Excellency Mr. Jan Sadek, Ambassador of the European Union (EU) to Botswana and SADC, have signed a new agreement worth EUR 3.6 million to facilitate cross-border transit of essential goods during the COVID-19 crisis. The 3.6 million Euro for the Tripartite Transit and Transport Facilitation Programme (TTTFP) under the SADC Secretariat, is geared at developing a special Corridor Trip Monitoring System (CTMS) to facilitate transit of essential goods that include food, fuel and medicines across the borders during the constraints of the COVID-19 epidemic. Recently, SADC adopted revised Regional Guidelines on Harmonization and Facilitation of Cross Border Transport Operations across the Region, and Regional Standard Operating Procedures for the Management and Monitoring of Cross Border Road Transport at Designated Points of Entry and Covid-19 Checkpoints. The revised guidelines, will also facilitate the implementation of SMART corridor trip monitoring system for management of the registration of cross border trips through, recording, monitoring and surveillance of driver wellness; tracking of vehicles loads and drivers; contact tracing; queue management; as well as statistical analysis and reporting.
Ambassador Sadek said that the EU support will contribute to the easing of movements of essential goods and services across the borders within the SADC region. On the same occasion, His Excellency Mr. Ralf Andreas Breth, Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to Botswana launched the implementation of the German Government support to ‘measures on the prevention and management of the negative effects of COVID-19 in the SADC region’ worth EUR1.53 million, which will assist in the development of policy guidelines to harmonize and ease cross-border trade of professional medical services and strengthen the digital infrastructure of the SADC Secretariat and Member States. “COVID-19 is a global challenge which calls for collective solidarity through strengthening existing partnerships amongst Germany, EU and SADC. This collective response will not only impact positively on short term regional response to the pandemic but will undoubtedly boost the long term availability of medical goods and services in the SADC region,” noted Ambassador Breth. These new allocations are part of a package of measures put in place by the EU and Germany (@Team Europe) to support SADC’s regional response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to the EUR 3.6 million for the TTTFP programme, the EU and SADC also revised the ongoing joint portfolio, worth EUR 145 million, and resolved to redirect some activities of projects to address the emerging needs derived from the COVID-19 crisis. (SADC)
Key Words: SADC, COVID-19, Regional Economy
SADC Senior Officials meet ahead of 40th Ordinary Summit and Council of Ministers meeting – The preceding meetings of the 40th Ordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government and Council of Ministers meeting of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) started on 10th August, 2020, with a virtual meeting of the SADC Standing Committee of Senior Officials, a technical advisory committee which reviews and clears documents for the SADC Council of Ministers. During the opening session of the meeting, Ambassador Brigadier General Wilbert Augustin Ibuge, Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and East African Cooperation of the United Republic of Tanzania handed over the Chairpersonship of the SADC Committee of Senior Officials to Ambassador Alfredo Fabião Nuvunga, Director for Regional and Continental Integration in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of the Republic of Mozambique. Ambassador Brigadier General Ibuge thanked the SADC Senior Officials for the support rendered to him during his tenure as Chairperson and for collectively addressing regional issues in the midst of the COVID-19 global pandemic. In his remarks after assuming the chairpersonship of the Committee, Ambassador Nuvunga expressed appreciation and gratitude to the outgoing Chairperson and the United Republic of Tanzania for the invaluable contribution to the socio-economic development and regional integration agenda in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
He added that the 40th SADC Summit theme; "SADC: 40 Years Building Peace and Security, Promoting Development and Resilience in the Face of Global Challenges" is intended to reflect on the SADC achievements whilst taking collective measures to consolidate peace and security and identify appropriate solutions to the challenges facing the region. On 13th August 2020, Hon. Verónica Nataniel Macamo Dlhovo, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of the Republic of Mozambique will take over the Chairpersonship of the SADC Council of Ministers from Hon. Prof. Palamagamba John Kabudi, Minister of Foreign Affairs and East African Cooperation of the United Republic of Tanzania. (tralac)
Key Words: SADC, trade, Regional Integration
